Category: Analysis

A Facebook post by EBC fact-check, a fact-checking unit of Ethiopian Broadcast Corporation, regarding Tizita Geremew, a PhD student and former lecturer at Wollo University, garnered significant attention on social media. EBC fact-check explored the story of Tizita, formerly a statistics teacher at Wollo University, with the headline “The Beggar Candidate Doctor And The Truth.” The post asserts Tizita’s situation based on an interview with Wollo University’s human resource director, Bedimariam Akalu. Bedimariam explained to EBC fact-check that Tizita Geremew used to teach at the university but faced challenges in attending classes consistently and struggled to teach effectively due to mental health issues and other difficulties. He further stated that despite Wollo University’s recommendation for her to remain, Tizita resigned due to her ongoing health concerns.

Tizita Geremew has been teaching statistics at Wollo University from 2012 to 2024. As HaqCheck can see in the service certificate she acquired, she moved to Addis after she quit her teaching job at the university after asking for her work experience letter from the university in August 2023 and left on February 20, 2024, she quit mainly because of her current health issue and the economic barriers she faced there. The question of survival didn’t get an answer when she moved to the capital, Addis Ababa, forcing her to go out to the streets and ask for help. 

EBC fact check refers to Tizitas’s situation after claiming to check the truth behind her, which includes only one phone call to Wollo University’s human resource director. The article, which tends to bring the truth to the audience, uses one phone call to conclude Tizitas’s financial situation and current struggle to live. EBC posted the conversation they had with the HR director of Wollo University, who referred to Tizita as a mentally ill person and then added that she didn’t accept the offer made by Wollo University not to quit her job.

As HaqCheck investigated the previous posts, EBC Fact Check most likely seemed interested in sharing details on claims it had found to be misleading regarding government-affiliated entities. As is evident, the fact-checking page contains quite a few non-governmental and foreign incidents; instead, announcements taken from institutions of government such as the Commercial Bank of Ethiopia, Ethiopian Airlines, Government Communication Service, Information Network Security Administration, City and Federal security forces, and others make up over 90% of its content. Instead of being a fact checker, the website might be imagined as a reporter. Sometimes, it simply shares information without providing any evidence of its own or by using other fact-checking organizations like AFP as a source.


EBC fact-check failed to follow the basic fact-checking process that can lead to the truth; from the above article and clip, any third party dare say that EBC didn’t conduct and deliver a shred of evidence proving the claim that the HR director has made of Wollo University. The fact-checking process did not evaluate the information they got from the story’s owner, which will make it be presented unfairly. The claim made by the HR manager and then by EBC presumed Tizita’s mental health without any proof. EBC fact-check is needed to fully understand the content of their fact-checking, leading to misuse of the contexts in Tizitas’ situation. Tizita was seeking only financial support, whereas EBC fact-check tried to contact Wollo University as if she was trying to defame the institution. 

In our investigation into the EBC fact check’s coverage of the woman formerly employed at Wolo University, we conducted a phone interview with Tizita Geremew. This interview provided valuable insights into the circumstances surrounding her departure from the university and challenged some of the claims made by EBC. Former statistics teacher Tizita spent twelve years teaching with additional community work. She was also a dedicated and respected member of the faculty, and her decision to leave was influenced by external factors unrelated to her mental health. Tizita believes that the claim made by the university will make her struggle to get a job and it also has the potential to cause discrimination against her. Tizta underlines that she doesn’t have any mental health issues. She added that she was teaching there and studying while the director worked in the human resource department. The Director mentioned that she had a mental illness without any medical proof. From her words, she only met the HR Director twice, making the individual unfit to assume Tizita’s health situation. 

We have also received documents from Tizita Geremew proving her significant employment history at the university. The letter from the college administrator, combined with her experience letter and other credentials, demonstrates her active involvement in statistics and related subjects. These documents are essential for validating Tizita Geremew’s professional background and expertise. The experience letter will likely explain her duties, responsibilities, and accomplishments at the university. Furthermore, her diplomas confirm her qualifications and expertise in statistics and related fields. These materials provide a detailed picture of Tizita Geremew’s academic career path, highlighting her dedication and expertise in her subject.



In examining EBC’s coverage of Tizita’s situation, it becomes evident that their fact-checking process exhibits several noticeable lapses; on April 23, 2024, a journalist at EBC who wanted to stay anonymous stated that “it was necessary to verify the information from multiple sources instead of relying only on one.”, He then added, “Tizita needed to deliver documents.”, but as we can see from their report, they didn’t ask her or try to involve her in the checking process before publishing the post. One of the primary shortcomings of the EBC fact-checking process is its reliance on a single source of information, which was only the university’s human resources. They only depend on the perspective of one individual. EBC fact checks may have overlooked alternative viewpoints but failed to comprehensively understand the situation.

Furthermore, EBC’s coverage appears to lack cross-checking of the claims made by the university regarding Tizita’s mental health to ensure accuracy. The absence of cross-checking raises concern about the ”EBC fact check” fact-checking process. Lastly, EBC didn’t follow up with deceptions to ensure the accuracy and completeness of their fact-checking, even if the aim was to reveal the truth. From our interview with Tizita and the documents she shared, Tizita started working at “Champion Communication” as a data researcher in the EBR Economic Research and Business Intelligence unit on April 3, 2024.

Journalism has its ethical principles that journalists must follow. Privacy is one consideration that journalists need to be responsible for. EBC Fact Check coverage of Tizita’s situation raises concern about the invasion of Tizita’s privacy rights. Hailegiorgis Mamo(PhD), media ethics lecturer at the School of Journalism at Addis Ababa University, argues that since the Tizita story involves private health details it must not be displayed by EBC also Wollo University since it is confidential, in the sense of journalism this kind of personal details need to be safeguarded by media. “Regretfully, both parties divulged delicate personal information that might hurt her future professional and interpersonal relationships.” There are some ethical considerations during any kind of fact-checking. The claim made by the university HR head on the mental health of Tizita must have been kept and protected by the university and EBC. Publicly disclosing sensitive information about her mental health without her consent or proper verification, EBC may have infringed upon Tizit’s right to privacy.

In conclusion, the post made by EBC that covers Tizita’s situation reveals significant ethical concerns of journalism regarding accuracy, transparency, and privacy rights. Only relies on a single source and tends not to cross-check, potentially violating Tizita’s privacy and implicating Tizita’s well-being. The EBC Fact Check report raises questions about the standards of a responsible journalist and the fact-checking process. Moving forward, media organizations like EBC must do their journalistic work reasonably and prioritize thoughtful reporting. This can be achieved by adhering to all guidelines, consulting, legal expertise, and reporting for accurate outcomes only.

The November 2023 Disinformation Analysis highlights several examples of misleading and false information circulating online in Ethiopia. These claims touch upon various aspects of Ethiopia’s political and economic landscape, including the country’s GDP growth, troop movements, and the death of a journalist.

Misleading Claim: Ethiopia’s GDP Doubled in Five Years

In November 2023, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (PhD) made the claim that Ethiopia’s GDP had doubled within the preceding five years. This statement, however, is inaccurate and misleading.

GDP, or Gross Domestic Product, represents the total monetary value of goods and services produced within a country during a specific year. Economic growth, therefore, refers to an increase in the production of goods and services, not merely an inflation in prices. Consequently, real GDP, rather than nominal GDP, serves as the most accurate measure of economic growth, as it accounts for changes in the general price level.

An examination of economic data reveals that Ethiopia’s real GDP only increased from 1.7 trillion Birr in 2018 to 2.2 trillion Birr in 2022, falling short of doubling. Furthermore, Ethiopia’s nominal GDP, when converted to US dollars, did not double either.

Therefore, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s claim that “Ethiopia’s GDP doubled in five years” is misleading and does not accurately reflect the country’s economic growth trajectory.

False Claim: Blinken Called for ENDF Withdrawal from Amhara

A social media claim circulated that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken had called for the withdrawal of the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) from the Amhara regional state. This claim is false.

On November 2, 2023, Secretary Blinken issued a statement commemorating the one-year anniversary of the Pretoria Agreement, which brought an end to the two-year war between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). In his statement, Blinken commended both sides for their commitment to the agreement and urged Ethiopia and Eritrea to refrain from provocative actions and respect the independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity of all countries in the region.

Secretary Blinken also expressed concern about the ongoing internal conflicts within Ethiopia and called for dialogue to resolve the conflicts in the Amhara and Oromia regional states. However, a thorough review of his statement commemorating the Pretoria Agreement reveals no explicit demand for the withdrawal of the ENDF from Amhara.

However, a review of Blinken’s statement commemorating the one-year anniversary of the Pretoria Agreement found no explicit demand for ENDF withdrawal. Therefore, the claim that Blinken called for the withdrawal of the ENDF from Amhara was found to be false.

False Claim: Eritrea Deploying Troops to Ethiopian Border

Social media posts claimed that Eritrea was deploying troops to the Ethiopian border. The posts use two images to support this claim.

During the conflict between the TPLF and the Ethiopian government, Eritrea played a significant role in supporting the central government. Notably, despite its involvement in the conflict, Eritrea did not participate in the negotiations or the subsequent signing of the peace agreement that concluded the war a year ago.

Recent statements from the Ethiopian government have emphasized the country’s aspiration to secure its own access to the sea, either through the Red Sea or the Indian Ocean. The Eritrean government has expressed opposition to this statement.

Amidst this context, the social media claim regarding Eritrean troop deployments emerged.

However, the images used to support this claim were old and did not depict recent troop movements.

Manipulated Video: Chief of Staff Birhanu Jula Said ENDF Exhausted by Fano Militants

A viral TikTok video purported to show Ethiopian Chief of General Staff Field Marshal Birhanu Jula admitting that the ENDF was overwhelmed by Fano militants. However, this claim is based on a manipulated video that misrepresents General Jula’s original statement.

The Ethiopian government’s decision to disarm and integrate special police forces in regional states into regional police, federal police, and the Ethiopian military sparked armed conflict between Fano militants and the ENDF in the Amhara region. Against this backdrop, the misleading TikTok video emerged, suggesting that Fano militants were gaining the upper hand in the Amhara region, with General Birhanu Jula’s supposed statement seemingly confirming this.

However, the TikTok video was deliberately altered to create this false impression. The original speech, published on YouTube two weeks prior, did not contain any statement about the ENDF being overwhelmed by Fano militants. The TikTok video was created by splicing together phrases from the original speech to fabricate a misleading narrative.

Therefore, the claim that General Birhanu Jula admitted the ENDF’s struggle against Fano militants is false and based on a manipulated video.

False Claim: President Sahle-Work Zewde Sought Asylum in US

Social media claims alleged that Ethiopian President Sahle-Work Zewde had traveled to the US and sought asylum there. These claims emerged against the backdrop of recent defections by several individuals, including journalists and an official from Ethiopia, who have sought political asylum in Europe and the United States.

Last month, Asemahegn Asres, a former Head of the Communication Bureau of the Amhara Region and vice chairman of the Parliament’s Standing Committee for Trade & Tourism Affairs, defected and sought political asylum abroad. Two weeks ago, reports indicated that Ethiopian Broadcasting Corporation journalist Mekdes Tilahun, who had recently traveled to the United States with President Sahle-Work Zewde, had disappeared from the airport.

In October, during a joint parliamentary session, President Sahle-Work Zewde expressed her disappointment at the lack of unity and reconciliation in Ethiopia, which has led to recurring conflicts and violence.

It was within this context that the claim regarding President Sahlewerk Zewde’s supposed defection and asylum-seeking in the US surfaced. However, recent news reports and confirmations from the UN Peacebuilding Commission indicate that President Zewde is currently in Ethiopia. On November 14, she received a delegation from the United Nations Peacebuilding Commission in Addis Ababa. This news was confirmed by the UN Peacebuilding Commission itself.

Therefore, the claim that President Sahle-Work Zewde sought asylum in the US is false and lacks any credible evidence.

False Claim: Journalist Asfaw Meshesha Died

A YouTube video claimed that Ethiopian journalist Asfaw Meshesha had died after being hospitalized. The video used misleading clips and images of mourners to support this fabricated claim. However, EBS, the broadcaster where Meshesha works, confirmed that he is alive and well.

Asfaw Meshesha is a well-known journalist who co-hosts the popular EBS TV show, Ehudn be EBS. Media reports indicated that he recently suffered a stroke and was admitted to a hospital in Addis Ababa. Following this incident, he traveled to the United States to seek advanced medical treatment.

It was against this backdrop that the false claim regarding Meshesha’s death emerged. The YouTube video employed manipulative editing techniques to create an impression of grief and mourning, which was entirely fabricated. EBS has since confirmed that Meshesha is alive and recovering from his medical condition.

Therefore, the claim that Asfaw Meshesha passed away is false. EBS confirmed that Meshesha is alive.

False Claim: Ethiopia’s Economy Bigger than Neighbors Combined

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed claimed that Ethiopia’s economy was bigger than those of its neighboring countries combined. However, an examination of economic data reveals that this claim is inaccurate.

Abiy Ahmed assumed power in April 2018, promising economic and political reforms to promote prosperity and democratization. The Ethiopian government, led by the Prosperity Party, maintains that these reforms have significantly improved the country’s economic performance.

Prime Minister Abiy has consistently emphasized Ethiopia’s positive economic trajectory and steady growth. Recently, he claimed that Ethiopia’s GDP had doubled within the past five years.

During an address to students, Prime Minister Abiy emphasized Ethiopia’s economic growth. He used a comparison of Ethiopia’s economy with its neighbors to support his assertion of the country’s economic progress.

Ethiopia’s economy, measured by nominal GDP, was the second largest in East Africa after Kenya five years ago. In 2018, Ethiopia’s nominal GDP stood at 84.4 billion USD, while Kenya’s nominal GDP was 91.2 billion USD.

In 2022, Ethiopia’s nominal GDP had increased to 126.8 billion USD, while Kenya’s nominal GDP stood at 119.5 billion USD. Consequently, Ethiopia’s economy, measured by nominal GDP, is the largest in East Africa.

However, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s claim that Ethiopia’s economy surpasses the combined GDP of its neighboring countries is inaccurate. Combining the nominal GDPs of Kenya and Sudan results in a figure significantly higher than that of Ethiopia.

Also, the combined nominal GDPs of Ethiopia’s five neighboring countries (excluding Eritrea and Somaliland) in 2022 amounted to 170 billion USD, exceeding Ethiopia’s 120.37 billion USD.

While Ethiopia has the largest nominal GDP in East Africa, a comparison of GDPs from its neighboring countries reveals that the combined GDP of Ethiopia’s neighbors exceeds Ethiopia’s.

Recommendations

HaqCheck urges social media users to adopt a critical approach when evaluating online information. Exercise caution and always verify claims from unknown or unverified sources before sharing them.

We encourage public institutions and other relevant entities to provide regular and timely updates to the public. Access to accurate information is crucial for minimizing the circulation of disinformation.

Social media content creators hold a significant responsibility in preventing the spread of misinformation. They must exercise caution and refrain from disseminating false or misleading information.

The government should uphold the public and media’s right to access information, ensuring that they have the necessary resources to verify and share accurate information.

Ethiopia’s Ministry of Education administers standardized assessments, including the Grade 12 or university entrance exam, to evaluate student performance. In recent years, the overall passing rate has experienced a significant decline, sparking widespread concern.

This decline has prompted students to explore alternative avenues for higher education, leading to a surge in demand for foreign education opportunities. However, this increased demand has also fostered the emergence of deceptive practices within the foreign education consultancy industry.

While reputable consultancies exist, it is essential to expose the misleading tactics employed by unscrupulous individuals within this sector. This article aims to shed light on these deceptive practices, emphasizing the importance of informed decision-making when selecting an education consultancy.

The Ethiopian foreign education consultancy landscape comprises a range of consultancies, with varying degrees of legitimacy. Some consultancies operate with registered licenses, while others operate without proper authorization. The prevalence of deceptive practices employed by these unlicensed or illegal consultancies is particularly concerning.

Evidence indicates that these consultancies are increasingly engaging in false promises and misleading advertisements, primarily through popular social media platforms like TikTok, Facebook, and Instagram. These advertisements often make exaggerated claims about guaranteed admissions to prestigious universities, scholarships, and lucrative post-graduation employment opportunities.

However, these promises are often baseless and serve primarily to attract vulnerable students who are desperately seeking to secure their future. The reality is that admissions to reputable universities are highly competitive, scholarships are limited, and post-graduation job prospects depend on a multitude of factors.

Another deceptive tactic employed by disreputable consultancies is the falsification of credentials and affiliations. To gain credibility and trust, these consultancies may fabricate partnerships with renowned universities, government agencies, or accreditation bodies that do not exist. By presenting themselves as authorized representatives of prestigious institutions, they exploit the aspirations of students and their families, leading them to believe they are receiving credible guidance.

Additionally, disreputable consultancies may fabricate success stories and testimonials, creating fake profiles of students who supposedly achieved remarkable outcomes through their services. These fabricated success stories and testimonials are strategically placed on websites, brochures, and social media platforms to instill confidence in potential clients. However, these accounts are far from genuine and serve as a means to manipulate and mislead students.

Furthermore, some consultancies manipulate information to their advantage, withholding crucial details such as the actual costs involved, visa requirements, or job market conditions in the chosen destination. By creating a false sense of security, they lure students into making ill-informed decisions that may have serious financial and career implications.

In some instances, consultancies may even engage in unauthorized practices, claiming to be recruitment agents or representatives of universities. They may charge exorbitant fees for application processing under the pretense of having direct connections with admissions departments.

It is important to note that legitimate universities have designated channels and authorized agents for student recruitment. Students falling prey to these unauthorized practices risk losing money, wasting time on fraudulent applications, and jeopardizing their chances of securing admissions to reputable institutions.

Certain education consultancies may make enticing promises of financial support, including pocket money and full tuition coverage at designated universities. However, these false assurances often lead to visa application rejections, causing significant distress and financial hardship.

Driven by desperation for opportunities, many individuals have fallen prey to these fraudulent practices, incurring substantial financial losses. Consultancies may demand prepayments of up to 300,000 birr, a considerable amount for Ethiopian families. Some families have even resorted to selling their land in an attempt to secure a brighter future for their children.

HaqCheck dedicated its efforts to uncovering these scams and the associated misinformation, gathering firsthand accounts from victims. The harrowing experiences of these individuals underscore the emotional and financial toll caused by these deceptive practices, emphasizing the urgent need for stricter regulations and oversight within the foreign education consultancy industry to safeguard others from falling victim to fraudulent schemes.

While the majority of applicants genuinely seek to pursue higher education, some individuals are solely motivated by the prospect of leaving the country and seeking asylum. These decisions, even among asylum seekers facing homelessness in Toronto, highlight the pervasive influence of disinformation.

In response to the rampant spread of misinformation, Ethiopians residing abroad who have successfully pursued educational opportunities are actively sharing detailed information regarding the required documentation and application procedures through various channels. Individuals like Estifanos from Ohub and Gedion are among those providing invaluable guidance.

Credible platforms, such as the Col John Robinson American Corner, provide accurate information and descriptions regarding foreign education. They regularly host education fairs at the US embassy and Satchmo Center, where students have the opportunity to connect with experts who offer detailed explanations of the legal pathways to securing scholarship opportunities and visas.

Even if education consultancies demonstrate a genuine commitment to guiding and assisting students, it remains crucial to recognize and expose the disinformation tactics employed by unscrupulous individuals within the sector. Students and their families must exercise utmost vigilance and conduct thorough research before engaging with any consultancy.

Verifying credentials, seeking recommendations, and meticulously cross-checking information are essential steps in making informed decisions. Empowering students with the knowledge and tools to make discerning choices is crucial in safeguarding their educational aspirations.

Recent claims on social media, particularly on Twitter, allege that the Lalibela rock-hewn churches, a UNESCO World Heritage site in Ethiopia, were damaged by an air strike conducted by the Ethiopian army on November 11, 2023.

These claims emerged against the backdrop of the ongoing armed conflict in the Amhara region between Fano militants and the Ethiopian armed forces. Recent clashes have been reported in the historic town of Lalibela, near the UNESCO-registered churches.

The Lalibela rock-hewn churches, comprising 11 monolithic churches intricately carved from solid rock in the 13th century, stand as a pivotal pilgrimage destination for Ethiopian Orthodox Christians. These churches are esteemed as one of Ethiopia’s most significant cultural and religious landmarks.

Over the centuries, the Lalibela churches have suffered damage from erosion and weathering. Some churches are at risk due to erosion, primarily caused by weathering that damages the stone surfaces. Recent conservation and restoration projects have been implemented at the site.

There have been several restoration campaigns since the early 20th century. Notably, three successive campaigns were conducted in 1920, 1954, and 1966-68 under Sandro Angelini, an Italian architect and conservator known for his work in the field of historical monument restoration direction. The initial restorations in 1920 and 1954 were hastily done without scientific precautions, using excessive cement, which worsened the condition of the churches. Angelini had to correct these negative aspects in later restorations.

UNESCO, the US, and the European Union are among those supporting the restoration and maintenance efforts of the churches.

The European Union funded the construction of temporary shelters over five churches to protect them from weathering while conservation studies and activities were being carried out.

In 2008, UNESCO built temporary shelters over five churches to protect five Lalibela churches.

However, the shelters caused vibration and noise, and their weight strained the delicate structures. The shelters’ heavyweight, susceptibility to wind damage, and lack of scientific monitoring have led to fears that they may collapse and damage the churches.

Therefore, a new conservation study was initiated in 2019 to recommend an alternative protection for the long-term conservation of the churches.

In March 2019, French President Macron visited the Lalibela churches site with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and pledged assistance in preserving, restoring, and enhancing the area.

The renovation and restoration project, initiated by the French embassy in September 2019, stopped when the war between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) spilled over into the Amhara regional state.

The conflict between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has raised concerns about the fate of the Lalibela churches. While the TPLF took control of Lalibela in August 2021, the Ethiopian government regained control in December 2021.

In October 2022, France granted Ethiopia 5 million euros to support preserving and restoring the Lalibela churches. The grant was provided to conduct the preparatory phase of a program focused on preserving and restoring the churches.

The Amhara region of Ethiopia has been the site of an ongoing armed conflict between the Ethiopian government and Fano armed militants since the government began disbanding regional special police forces and integrating them into the regional regular police, federal police, and the Ethiopian military.

Recently, conflicts and confrontations between Fano and the Ethiopian army have been documented in various areas of the Amhara region, including the North Showa and Oromo special zones.

Furthermore, hostilities have broken out in the historic Ethiopian town of Lalibela, where government forces clashed with Fano militants, including a recent skirmish near the Lalibela rock-hewn churches involving the Fano militia and the Ethiopian army.

The armed conflict has raised concerns about the safety of Lalibela’s UNESCO World Heritage Site churches. Recent clashes have caused ground vibrations due to heavy weapons fire, adding to the uncertainty surrounding the safety and preservation of this cultural heritage site.

The town of Lalibela has experienced recurrent armed clashes between Fano militia groups and Ethiopian military troops. Fighting was reported on September 20, October 1, and October 8, with Fano militants capturing the town for hours on October 8 before being recaptured by Ethiopian Defense Forces on October 9.

Media reports indicate that heavy artillery weapons were employed during these recurrent clashes, leading to ground vibrations when weapons were discharged.

The Ethiopian Orthodox Tewahedo Church expressed concern about the safety of the monolith churches of Lalibela, with Abune Ermias, archbishop of North Wollo and Kemise Diocese, stating that the Lalibela churches are at high risk due to the fighting.

Responding to concerns, the Amhara Regional Culture and Tourism Bureau refuted allegations circulating on social media that the Lalibela churches were damaged during the fighting. This statement followed reports alleging damage to the churches during clashes between Ethiopian army troops and Fano militants in Lalibela.

Abebaw Ayalew, director-general of the Authority for Research and Conservation of Cultural Heritage, stated that a committee of seven individuals visited Lalibela to assess whether the churches sustained damages.

He noted vibrations in the area but confirmed no new cracks in the walls and structures of the churches. Abebaw stated that the office is investigating whether the vibrations caused previous cracks to widen and aggravate using three-dimensional (3D) tools.

Abebaw stated that the committee verified the churches were undamaged by weapons and fragments. Yet, they did discover a newly lodged bullet on the fence of the museum within Biete Medhane Alem, a rock-hewn church in Lalibela.

During a recent public meeting organized by the Ethiopian National Defense Force and the Amhara region in Lalibela town, attendees reported that Ethiopian army troops fired artillery and machine cannons from the vicinity of the churches, resulting in ground vibrations.

How do explosive weapons damage buildings and structures?

Explosive weapons, as explained in a report by the Geneva International Centre for Humanitarian Demining, a leading expert organization on explosive materials, 2017 can harm buildings and structures in two main ways: through primary and secondary effects.

Primary effects include blast overpressure, fragmentation, and heat, while secondary effects encompass debris or secondary fragmentation, firebrands, ground shock, and cratering. These secondary effects happen based on the surroundings where the explosive device explodes.

The degree of harm is contingent on several factors, such as the specific explosive weapon utilized, the distance from the detonation site to the structure, and the materials used in the building’s construction.

Blast overpressure, fragmentation, and heat

Blast overpressure, the most damaging primary effect, occurs when energy is rapidly released in an explosion.

A powerful blast wave, also known as a shockwave, swiftly travels through the air at supersonic speeds, exerting significant force on nearby structures. This force can damage buildings, applying pressure to roofs and walls, leading to shattered windows, warped walls, and structural collapse.

Fragments from the explosive device, especially those originating from the metal casing of the warhead, can travel tens to a few hundred meters away from the explosion site.

Fragmentation, another main impact, includes scattering high-speed projectiles from the casing objects. These fragments, varying from small pieces to larger chunks, have the potential to cause damage to buildings and structures. While not as dangerous to buildings as blast waves, these fragments can still pose a threat.

The heat released during detonation is confined to the nearby space, and its duration is brief. This heat results from the intense chemical reaction in the explosive detonation.

It has the potential to harm building materials, decreasing their flexibility. While the main thermal risk is usually less severe than blast and fragmentation dangers, it can still weaken building materials and structures, causing them to lose flexibility and contribute to gradual collapse. Moreover, heat can trigger flammable materials, resulting in additional fires.

Debris or secondary fragmentation and firebrands

Secondary effects occur when the explosion interacts with the surrounding environment.

Debris, including fragments of building materials, vegetation, or other dislodged objects, can inflict additional damage as they collide with structures.

While secondary fragments may not travel as far or as quickly as primary fragments, they can still penetrate walls, break windows, and cause structural harm.

Firebrands, which are composed of burning materials or fragments, have the potential to ignite nearby combustible materials.

This situation may occur when an explosive device detonates in close proximity to flammable objects such as wood, grass, vehicles, and fuel.

Embers risk buildings and structures by igniting nearby combustible materials and contributing to increased damage.

Ground shock and cratering

Ground shock occurs when the energy from the shockwave is transferred to the ground, shaking the foundations of buildings, compromising their structural integrity, and raising the risk of collapse.

Cratering, another secondary effect, occurs when a depression forms in the ground at the detonation site, potentially damaging nearby structures and destabilizing foundations.

While the recent claim of damage to the Lalibela rock-hewn churches remains unverified,  the ongoing conflict in the vicinity of these susceptible churches and the deployment of explosive weapons can result in additional damage, encompassing blast overpressure, fragmentation, heat, debris (secondary fragmentation), firebrands, ground shock, and cratering.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed claimed that Ethiopia’s economy was the second largest in East Africa five years ago and is now bigger than those of its neighboring countries combined.

Abiy assumed power in April 2018 following widespread protests, pledging economic and political reforms to foster prosperity and democratization. The Ethiopian government, led by the Prosperity Party, contends that the reforms have significantly improved the country.

The PM has repeatedly asserted that Ethiopia is on the right economic trajectory and the economy is growing. Recently, he claimed that Ethiopia’s GDP doubled within the last five years.

In a recent speech delivered to summer students at the Artificial Intelligence Institute, PM Abiy told the students that Ethiopia is growing. The comparison of Ethiopia’s economy with its neighbors was used to support his argument that Ethiopia and its economy are growing.

As PM Abiy claimed, Ethiopia’s economy, measured by nominal GDP, was the second largest in East Africa after that of Kenya five years ago. In 2018, Ethiopia’s nominal GDP, according to the National Bank of Ethiopia, was 84.4 billion USD, and Kenya’s nominal GDP, according to the Central Bank of Kenya, was 91.2 billion USD.

Five years later, in 2022, Ethiopia’s nominal GDP was 126.8 billion USD, and Kenya’s nominal GDP stood at 119.5 billion USD. Thus, as measured by nominal GDP, Ethiopia’s economy is the largest in East Africa.

However, the claim by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed that Ethiopia’s economy is even bigger than that of its neighbors combined is false.

Ethiopia is bordered by six internationally recognized countries: Somalia, Kenya, South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, and Djibouti, and one de facto sovereign state, Somaliland.

According to the World Bank, Sudan’s nominal GDP in 2022 was 51.7 billion USD. Accordingly, if we combine the nominal GDPs of Kenya and Sudan, they are much bigger than those of Ethiopia (171.2 billion versus 126.8 billion).

The latest data for the nominal GDPs of Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somaliland, and Somalia are not available online through their respective central banks or statistics agencies. Therefore, we must rely on data from other international financial institutions, such as the IMF, for our purposes.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported the nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for several countries in the Horn of Africa for the year 2022. These figures are as follows: Ethiopia’s GDP stood at USD 120.37 billion, Kenya’s at USD 113.7 billion, Sudan’s at USD 33.75 billion, Somalia’s at USD 10.42 billion, South Sudan’s at USD 8.54 billion, and Djibouti’s at USD 3.66 billion. It is important to note that the IMF’s data does not include information on Eritrea and Somaliland for the specified year.

Therefore, the combined nominal GDPs of Ethiopia’s five neighboring countries (excluding Eritrea and Somaliland) in 2022 was 170 billion USD, surpassing Ethiopia’s 120.37 billion USD.

In summary, despite Ethiopia having the largest nominal GDP in East Africa, Prime Minister Abiy’s claim that Ethiopia’s economy is larger than its neighbors combined is found to be false based on economic data from 2022.

President Sahlewerk Zewde stayed behind and seeking asylum in the US

A claim circulated on social media platforms, particularly Twitter and TikTok, that Ethiopian President Sahle-Work Zewde had left Ethiopia for the US and was seeking asylum there. The claim stated that she traveled to the US for a visit and stayed behind to seek asylum due to the “situation in Ethiopia and the harshness of the government.”

In recent times, several individuals including journalists and an official from Ethiopia have defected to Europe and the United States, seeking political asylum. These defections have occurred against a backdrop of political instability and conflict in the country.

Last month, Asemahegn Asres, a former Head of the Communication Bureau of the Amhara Region and vice chairman of the Parliament’s Standing Committee for Trade & Tourism Affairs, defected and sought political asylum abroad.

Two weeks ago, reports indicated that Ethiopian Broadcasting Corporation journalist Mekdes Tilahun, who had recently traveled to the United States with President Sahle-Work Zewde, had disappeared from the airport.

In October, during a joint parliamentary session, President Sahle-Work Zewde expressed her disappointment at the lack of unity and reconciliation in Ethiopia, which has led to recurring conflicts and violence.

It was in this context the claim that President Sahlewerk Zewde traveled to the US and stayed behind seeking asylum in the country emerged.

However, recent news reports indicate that President Zewde is currently in Ethiopia, and the claim that she has defected is false. On November 14, she received a delegation from the United Nations Peacebuilding Commission in Addis Ababa. This news was confirmed by the UN Peacebuilding Commission itself.

Journalist Asfaw Meshesha died

A claim on YouTube stated that journalist Asfaw Meshesha, who works for the Ethiopian Broadcasting Service (EBS), had died after being hospitalized. The YouTube video went viral, garnering thousands of views.

Asfaw Meshesha is a journalist known for being a co-host of the popular television show, Ehudn be EBS, on EBS TV.

Media reports stated that the journalist recently suffered a stroke and was admitted to the hospital in Addis Ababa. However, he traveled to the United States for better medical treatment.

The claim was made against this backdrop. The YouTube video used short clips and images that show mourners crying.

However, the claim that Asfaw Meshesha has died is false. The clips and images used in the YouTube video do not support the claim. Most of the clips and images were taken from scenes of the EBS show that Asfaw Meshesha co-hosts. Additionally, HaqCheck contacted EBS for information, and the media company confirmed that the claim was false.

Ethiopia’s Economy is bigger than neighbors combined

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed claimed that Ethiopia’s economy was the second largest in East Africa five years ago and is now bigger than those of its neighboring countries combined.

Abiy assumed power in April 2018 following widespread protests, pledging economic and political reforms to foster prosperity and democratization. The Ethiopian government, led by the Prosperity Party, contends that the reforms have significantly improved the country.

The PM has repeatedly asserted that Ethiopia is on the right economic trajectory, and the economy is growing. Recently, he claimed that Ethiopia’s GDP doubled within the last five years.

In a recent speech delivered to summer students at the HQs of INSA, PM Abiy told the students that Ethiopia is growing. The comparison of Ethiopia’s economy with its neighbors was used to support his argument that Ethiopia and its economy are growing.

As PM Abiy claimed, Ethiopia’s economy, measured by nominal GDP, was the second largest in East Africa after that of Kenya five years ago. In 2018, Ethiopia’s nominal GDP was 84.4 billion USD, and Kenya’s nominal GDP was 91.2 billion USD.

In 2022, Ethiopia’s nominal GDP was 126.8 billion USD, and Kenya’s nominal GDP stood at 119.5 billion USD. Thus, Ethiopia’s economy, measured by nominal GDP, is the largest in East Africa.

However, the claim by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed that Ethiopia’s economy is even bigger than that of its neighbors combined is false.

Ethiopia is bordered by six internationally recognized countries: Somalia, Kenya, South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, and Djibouti, and one de facto sovereign state: Somaliland.

According to the World Bank, Sudan’s nominal GDP in 2022 was 51.7 billion USD. Accordingly, if we combine the nominal GDPs of Kenya and Sudan, it is much bigger than that of Ethiopia (171.2 billion versus 126.8 billion).

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the nominal GDPs of Ethiopia, Kenya, Sudan, Somalia, South Sudan, and Djibouti in 2022 respectively were 120.37 billion, 113.7 billion, 33.75 billion, 10.42 billion, 8.54 billion, and 3.66 billion USD. The IMF doesn’t have data on Eritrea and Somaliland.

Therefore, the combined nominal GDPs of Ethiopia’s five neighboring countries (excluding Eritrea and Somaliland) in 2022 was 170 billion USD, surpassing Ethiopia’s 120.37 billion USD.

In summary, despite Ethiopia having the largest nominal GDP in East Africa, Prime Minister Abiy’s claim that Ethiopia’s economy is larger than its neighbors combined is found to be false based on economic data from 2022.

Recommendations

HaqCheck urges government officials to take accountability and abstain from disseminating inaccurate or misleading statements.

HaqCheck encourages social media users to employ critical thinking skills, emphasizing the importance of verifying claims from unfamiliar or unverified sources before dissemination.

Content creators on social media are advised to act responsibly and abstain from spreading information that is false or misleading.

We call upon public institutions and relevant organizations to provide consistent and timely updates to the public and the media.

Recognizing the crucial role of information access in combating misinformation, the government is urged to safeguard the public and media’s right to access information, contributing to the reduction of the widespread dissemination of false information.

Disinformation in Ethiopia in October 2023 was driven by the conflict between Fano militias and Ethiopian government forces. Disinformation was spread through a variety of tactics, including altered and old videos, recycled claims, and false images.

The armed conflict involving Fano militias and Ethiopian government forces significantly contributed to the dissemination of disinformation last month.

Below are some of the disinformation themes tracked across the Ethiopian social media landscape during October.

Violence against civilians by ENDF soldiers

Social media in Ethiopia has been circulating false claims about violence by the Ethiopian government against civilians in the Amhara region.

A user on An X (formerly known as Twitter) shared a video claiming that it showed Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) soldiers recently beating up civilians in the Amhara region.

HaqCheck investigated the claim and found that the video was old and had been posted on Twitter on May 13, 2021, with a description that it showed Ethiopian army soldiers beating up and terrorizing Tigrayan civilians during the armed conflict between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).

Afar militants joined Fano in opposition to the Ethiopian government

False information was being circulated on the Ethiopian social media landscape claiming that Afar ethnic militants were teaming up with Fano militants in opposition to the Ethiopian government.

One example of this disinformation campaign was a Facebook post that shared an image claiming that Afar militants were fighting the Ethiopian military supporting Fano militants.

However, the post used an old image from May 2021 to support their claim that the Afar and Fano militias were fighting together. The original description of the image said that it showed armed conflict between Afar and Somali militants.

Government looted and smuggled artifacts

Another theme of disinformation in October revolved around a claim that the Ethiopian government looted and smuggled precious artifacts.

A Telegram channel with over 334,000 members shared two images on October 4, 2023, claiming that the Ethiopian government had stolen artifacts, replicas of the Tablets of Stone, ancient gold coins, and crowns of kings from the Amhara and Tigray regions and smuggled them to the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

However, the images were old and had been previously published on websites. One image, showing gold bars, was published on a website called PicLoc and is for sale. The second image, showing household items, was published on a Turkish website and is used to describe a house-to-house transportation service company.

The Ethiopian government bombed residential areas

One of the themes of disinformation in October was that the Ethiopian government was indiscriminately bombing the Amhara region, including civilian and densely populated residential areas.

For example, a TikTok video shared a video of burning buildings and claimed it showed the city of Gondar being bombed by the Ethiopian government.

However, the video was previously published on social media in August 2023 by Way To Go Heliservices, a company in New Zealand that provides helicopter services. The video shows a helicopter burning weeds.

Recommendations

HaqCheck advises social media users to exercise critical thinking when evaluating information encountered online and to verify claims from unknown or unverified sources before sharing them.

Social media content creators should be responsible and avoid disseminating false or misleading information.

We urge public institutions and other relevant entities to provide regular and timely updates.

Access to information is essential to reduce the widespread circulation of disinformation. The government should ensure the public and media’s right to access information.

Blinken called for the withdrawal of the ENDF from the Amhara region

Last week, a claim (link, link) circulated on social media that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken called for the withdrawal of the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) from the Amhara regional state.

On November 2, Blinken issued a statement commemorating the one-year anniversary of the Pretoria Agreement, which ended the two-year war between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). In the statement, Blinken commended both sides for their commitments to the agreement and called on Ethiopia and Eritrea to refrain from provocation and respect the independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity of all countries in the region.

Blinken also expressed concern about the internal conflicts in Ethiopia and called for dialogue to resolve the conflicts in the Amhara and Oromia regional states.

However, contrary to the claim on social media, Antony Blinken’s statement did not include a specific call for the withdrawal of the Ethiopian military from the Amhara region. While he addressed the internal conflicts in Ethiopia, he did not make any explicit demand for the ENDF to withdraw from the Amhara regional state.

Therefore, the claim that Blinken called for the withdrawal of the ENDF from Amhara is false.

Eritrea is deploying troops to Ethiopian border

HaqCheck has observed a claim on social media that Eritrea is deploying its troops to the Ethiopian border. The posts use two images to support this claim, but both images are old and do not show Eritrean troops recently deployed near the Ethiopian border.

During the conflict between the TPLF and the Ethiopian government, Eritrea played a significant role in supporting the central government. It’s worth noting that Eritrea, despite its involvement in the conflict, did not take part in the negotiations or the subsequent signing of the peace agreement that concluded the war a year ago.

Recent statements from the Ethiopian government emphasized the country’s aspiration to secure its own access to the sea, either through the Red Sea or the Indian Ocean. The Eritrean government has opposed this statement.

In this context, the social media claim that Eritrea is deploying its troops to the Ethiopian border emerged. 

However, the images used in the post were old and did not show Eritrean troops recently deployed near the Ethiopian border.

Chief of Staff Birhanu Jula said ENDF is exhausted by Fano militants

HaqCheck came across a viral TikTok video in which Ethiopian Chief of General Staff Field Marshal Birhanu Jula is heard saying that the Ethiopian military is exhausted and defeated by Fano militants.

The Ethiopian government’s decision to disarm special police forces in regional states and integrate them into regional police, federal police, and the Ethiopian military led to opposition in the Amhara region. This decision sparked armed conflict between Fano militants and the Ethiopian military in the region. Reports indicate that clashes between Fano militants and Ethiopian military forces are ongoing in the Amhara region.

It is against this backdrop that the claim on TikTok emerged, suggesting that Fano militants were prevailing over the Ethiopian army in the Amhara region, with General Birhanu Jula allegedly confirming this.

However, the TikTok clip featuring General Birhanu Jula was manipulated and does not support this claim. It was taken from an original video published on YouTube. The original speech, made by General Birhanu Jula two weeks prior, did not contain a statement about ENDF being overwhelmed by Fano militants. The short TikTok video was created by splicing together phrases from the original video to give the false impression that General Birhanu Jula made such a statement.

Recommendations

It’s important for social media users to approach posts with caution, especially if they come from unfamiliar or unconfirmed sources. They should fact-check claims before reacting.

Social media content creators should act responsibly and refrain from sharing information that is untrue or could mislead others.

Public institutions and other concerned organizations should regularly provide timely and accurate information.

The government should ensure that both the public and the media have the right to access information. Access to information is crucial for combating disinformation.

Claim: Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (PhD) claimed that Ethiopia’s GDP doubled in five years.

Verdict: Misleading. Ethiopia’s GDP did not double in five years, either in real GDP or US dollars.

On the 116th Ethiopian Military Day on October 26, 2023, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (PhD) said: “Ethiopia, for the first time in its history, had doubled its GDP within five years, despite challenges due to COVID-19, war, and foreign countries’ pressure. To those who say Ethiopia is not progressing, I am proud to tell you that Ethiopia has doubled its GDP in five years for the first time. Our progress will continue. No challenge will stop us.”

[YouTube video: Fana Television]

Ethiopia was one of the fastest-growing economies in the world from 2004 to 2019. The period spanning 2004 to 2011 saw Ethiopia registering double-digit economic growth, according to data from the National Bank of Ethiopia.

However, since 2016, Ethiopia has been grappling with severe crises, leading to widespread instability. Popular protests and social unrest shook the country to its core, compelling the then-ruling Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) to initiate sweeping reforms. This period of upheaval has led to the appointment of Abiy Ahmed, PhD, as the party’s chairman. Subsequently, the Parliament endorsed him as Prime Minister in April 2018.

Upon his accession, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed pledged to undertake substantial political and economic reforms, a move that garnered him widespread support. Despite these promises, the nation continued to experience turmoil. The political and economic landscape was significantly disrupted by the standoff and eventual conflict with the former dominant Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), culminating in a war in November 2020.

The ensuing armed confrontations, particularly in the Amhara and Oromia regional states, have persisted, often involving the government forces and various insurgent groups. In response to the armed conflict with the TPLF and the ongoing conflict, Western countries, notably the United States and the European Union, have exerted pressure on the Ethiopian government to pursue peaceful resolutions. Some of these efforts have extended to imposing sanctions, citing the government’s failure to address and resolve the conflicts through peaceful means.

The convergence of the war, continuous instability, the COVID-19 pandemic, and sanctions from Western countries have had a detrimental impact on the Ethiopian economy.

It is within this context that Prime Minister Abiy claimed that Ethiopia’s GDP had doubled in five years.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) serves as the overarching measure of a country’s economic activity, representing the total market value of all final goods and services produced within a nation’s borders over a specified period, typically one year.

The significance of GDP lies in its role as a principal indicator of economic health; it provides insights into the pace of economic growth and offers a snapshot of the size and efficiency of economic performance. An ascending GDP trajectory generally denotes a robust economy characterized by increasing income levels and burgeoning employment prospects.

GDP is reported through two primary methods: nominal GDP and real GDP.

Nominal GDP accounts for the aggregate value of all goods and services produced within a country during a particular year, priced at current market rates. However, it only offers an accurate gauge of economic growth over time, as it fails to adjust for price-level fluctuations caused by inflation or deflation. Consequently, even if the actual volume of goods and services produced remains constant year over year, nominal GDP may still report growth simply due to inflationary pressures.

To illustrate, a 10% rise in nominal GDP juxtaposed with a 10% inflation rate within the same time frame implies that real economic growth is effectively nil.

In contrast, real GDP delivers a more refined measure by valuing the total output of goods and services using constant prices from a fixed point in time, thus neutralizing the distortive effects of inflation. For example, if Ethiopia’s nominal GDP escalates from 100 billion USD in 2020 to 150 billion USD in 2023, with inflation running at 50% over this interval, the real GDP for 2023, adjusted for inflation, would equate to 75 billion USD.

Nominal GDP, therefore, can offer a misleading interpretation of economic performance in times of significant price level changes. Real GDP is the superior indicator of economic growth as it incorporates adjustments for inflation, providing a more authentic representation of an economy’s true output.

To achieve a doubling of real GDP within five years, the economy would need to sustain an average annual growth rate of approximately 14%.

Fiscal Year	Real GDP growth rate	Nominal GDP growth rate
2017/18	7.7	20.2
2018/19	9.0	22.4
2019/20	6.1	25.5
2020/21	6.3	28.6
2021/22	6.4	41.8

Nonetheless, Ethiopia has experienced an average annual economic growth rate of 7.1% over the past five years. With this expansion rate, approximately ten years would be necessary to double Ethiopia’s real GDP.

Inflation erodes the purchasing power of money, which can skew the figures for nominal GDP, resulting in potentially deceptive evaluations of an economy’s health and growth. This decrease in currency value signifies that consumers must spend more to obtain the same quantity of goods and services, potentially inflating GDP figures without any corresponding real growth in economic output. To illustrate, a devaluation of the Ethiopian Birr may artificially inflate the nominal GDP, even without any increase in the volume of goods and services produced.

Ethiopia has been facing persistent high inflation, which can be described as chronic and surging, with the inflation rate reaching 33.8% in the fiscal year 2021/22.

Fiscal Year	Nominal GDP in Birr	Inflation Rate	Real GDP in Birr
2017/18	2,202,373,000,000	14.60	1,719,491,000,000
2018/19	2,696,223,000,000	12.60	1,874,689,300,000
2019/20	3,374,747,000,000	19.90	1,989,519,000,000
2020/21	4,341,387,100,000	20.20	2,114,163,000,000
2021/22	6,157,538,000,000	33.80	2,248,571,000,000

As the data above shows, from 2018 to 2022 reveals an average inflation rate of 20.22%. Such a rate suggests that nominal GDP would rise by the same percentage annually, even in a scenario where the production of goods and services remains static.

Furthermore, Ethiopia’s nominal GDP, denominated in Birr, has escalated from 2.2 trillion Birr in the fiscal year 2017/18 to 6.15 trillion Birr in 2021/22.

However, when evaluated in terms of the US dollar, the increase in Ethiopia’s GDP appears more moderate, moving from 84 billion USD in 2017/18 to 126.8 billion USD in 2021/22. This discrepancy is attributable primarily to the depreciation of the Ethiopian Birr relative to the US dollar.

Fiscal Year	Nominal GDP in Birr	Nominal GDP in USD	Exchange rate (USD/ETB)
2017/18	2,202,373,000,000	84,355,600,000	26.1
2018/19	2,696,223,000,000	95,951,0000,000	28.1
2019/20	3,374,747,000,000	107,673,000,000	31.3
2020/21	4,341,387,100,000	111,271,200,000	39
2021/22	6,157,538,000,000	126,783,000,000	48.57

Fact-checking PM Abiy Ahmed’s Claim:

Ethiopian GDP didn’t double in five years in terms of real GDP.

Ethiopia’s real GDP did not double in five years because it only grew from 1.7 trillion Birr in 2018 to 2.2 trillion Birr in 2022.

If Ethiopia’s real GDP had doubled in five years, it would have been 3.4 trillion Birr in 2022.

Ethiopian GDP didn’t double in five years in terms of US dollars.

Ethiopia’s nominal GDP more than doubled in terms of Birr from 2010 to 2014, but it did not double in terms of US dollars. This is because the value of the Ethiopian Birr has decreased significantly over time.

Why did Ethiopia’s GDP double in five years in terms of Birr but not US dollars?

This is because the value of the Ethiopian Birr has decreased significantly over time. In other words, inflation has eroded the purchasing power of the Birr.

For example, in 2018, 26.1 Birr could buy 1 US dollar. This means Ethiopia’s GDP of 2.2 trillion Birr in 2018 was equivalent to 84 billion US dollars.

In 2022, it took 48.57 Birr to buy 1 US dollar. This means Ethiopia’s GDP of 6.16 trillion Birr in 2022 was only equivalent to 126 billion US dollars.

Example 2: Suppose Ethiopia produced 100 cars in 2018 and sold each car for 1 million Birr. Therefore, Ethiopia’s total revenue (GDP) was 100 million Birr, or 3.83 million USD, since the USD to Birr exchange rate was 26.1.

Suppose again that Ethiopia produced 100 cars in 2022 and sold each car for 2 million Birr. Ethiopia’s total revenue (GDP) was 200 million Birr, or 4.1 million USD, since the USD to Birr exchange rate was 48.57.

According to the above premises, in terms of Birr, Ethiopia’s revenue doubled (from 100 million to 200 million). However, in terms of USD, it did not double (it only slightly increased from 3.8 million to 4.1 million).

The same principle applies to Ethiopia’s GDP. The value of the Birr has depreciated significantly over time, which is why Ethiopia’s GDP has not doubled in five years in US dollars, even though it has more than doubled in terms of Birr.

Conclusion:

GDP is the total value of goods and services produced in a country in a year. Economic growth means an increase in the production of goods and services, not in prices. Therefore, real GDP, not nominal GDP, is always the accurate measure of economic growth.

Based on available data, Ethiopia’s GDP did not double in five years in terms of real GDP. While nominal GDP showed substantial growth, this was largely due to inflation. When adjusted for inflation, the real GDP growth did not meet the doubling claim.

In terms of US dollars, the devaluation of the Birr also played a significant role. While nominal GDP dramatically increased in Birr, it did not double when converted to US dollars.

Verdict:

Therefore, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s claim that “Ethiopia’s GDP doubled in five years” is MISLEADING.

Disclaimer: The data used in this article is obtained from the Ethiopian government (National Bank of Ethiopia). HaqCheck does not guarantee the accuracy of this data.

Ethiopia’s government officials and affiliated media have stated that the country requires coastline access or access to the sea. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has emphasized the need for Ethiopia to secure a coastline or access to the sea through the Red Sea or Indian Ocean. The government has also urged neighboring countries to discuss or negotiate the issue.

Claims and themes of the claims

[X post: link]

[YouTube video: link]

Based on its monitoring of state-affiliated media and social media reports, HaqCheck identified four main themes in the Ethiopian government’s claims regarding the issue:

1. Coastline or access to the sea: State media (link) and the government have asserted that Ethiopia needs a coastline (access to the sea) and that it can secure this right under international law.
2. Utilization of maritime resources: HaqCheck also observed claims that international law permits landlocked Ethiopia to utilize maritime resources, such as fishing, on an equal basis with coastal states.
3. Right of transit for imports and exports: State media and government officials have asserted that international law guarantees landlocked countries the right of transit for imports and exports.
4. Freedom of navigation: Government officials, citing international law, have stated that the high seas belong to no one and that Ethiopia has the right to freedom of navigation.

The Ethiopian government’s claims about international law guaranteeing Ethiopia a coastline, transit for imports and exports, freedom of navigation, and resource utilization are primarily based on the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) of 1982.

Ethiopia’s government, state-run media, and officials have claimed that international law allows Ethiopia to obtain coastline or sea access.

What is the law of the sea?

The law of the sea is a body of international law that governs matters related to seas and oceans, issues of navigational rights, sea mineral claims, and coastal waters jurisdiction.

What are the sources of the law of the sea?

The sources of the law of the sea, which is the international law governing maritime issues such as the high seas, transit rights, navigational rights, sea mineral claims, and coastal waters jurisdiction, are primarily international customs, treaties, and agreements.

Evolution of the law of the sea

The Viena Congress of 1815 

In 1815, Austria, Britain, Russia, Prussia (Germany), France, and other European countries signed the Treaty of Vienna. The treaty stated that European rivers, especially the Rhine and Danube, should be open to navigation.

The Congress of Vienna established that all countries should have equal access to navigation on international rivers and their tributaries. This principle was used in all nineteenth-century treaties on seas and navigation.

The Mannheim Act of 1868

In 1868, the present-day German states of Baden, Bavaria, Hesse, and Prussia, as well as France and the Netherlands, signed the Treaty of Mannheim. The treaty made the Rhine River free for all countries to navigate.

The Barcelona Convention and Statute on Freedom of Transit of 1921

The 1921 Barcelona Convention, which followed the Treaty of Versailles, allowed landlocked countries to transport goods across the territory of other countries. The treaty prohibited governments from charging transit fees that exceed the cost of operating or providing transit services.

The Geneva Conventions on the Law of the Sea of 1958

In 1958, the United Nations General Assembly resolved to convene a conference to draft a convention on the law of the sea. The First United Nations Conference on the Law of the Sea was held in Geneva, Switzerland, and resulted in the adoption of four international conventions between United Nations member states:

1. The Convention on the Territorial Sea and Contiguous Zone
2. The Convention on the Continental Shelf
3. The Convention on the High Seas
4. The Convention on Fishing and Conservation of Living Resources of the High Seas.

The Convention on Transit Trade of Land-locked States of 1965

This Convention allows landlocked countries to transport goods through the territory of other countries to and from seaports. The convention is based on the principle that landlocked countries need access to the sea to trade and grow their economies.

The Convention states that import and export goods from landlocked countries that pass through the territory of other countries should not be subject to customs duties or excessive transit charges.

The UNCLOS III

In 1982, the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS III) was signed. UNCLOS is a comprehensive convention that supersedes all four of the previous conventions. It is now the main source of international law for international waters.

The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) entered into force in 1994 after 60 countries had ratified it. However, several countries still need to ratify UNCLOS, including the United States, Eritrea, and Turkey. The United States has argued that UNCLOS could limit its sovereignty and its freedom to act in its own national interest.

Ethiopia and UNCLOS

Ethiopia signed the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) in 1982, but it has yet to be a party to the convention because it has yet to ratify it.

Ethiopia and access to the sea

Ethiopia maintains a complex and significant relationship with the Red Sea. Although currently landlocked, the country’s historical ties, geopolitical significance, and economic interests render the sea an essential element in both its foreign and domestic policy frameworks.

Tracing back to the Aksumite Empire, Ethiopia’s influence over the Red Sea was once substantial, dominating key sections of the coastline. Throughout different historical periods, the country leveraged this maritime access for trade and geopolitical sway. After Italy colonized Eritrea in the late 19th century, Ethiopia temporarily lost its Red Sea access. However, the incorporation of Eritrea as an Ethiopian province in 1952 restored this access.

During the reign of Emperor Haile Selassie, Ethiopia utilized the Eritrean ports of Massawa and Assab for various maritime activities. These ports assumed increased significance after the Suez Crisis in 1956 and throughout the Cold War, as Ethiopia aligned with Western powers. The conclusion of the Eritrean War of Independence in 1993, however, rendered Ethiopia landlocked and fundamentally changed its relationship with the Red Sea. Between 1991 and the onset of the Ethiopia-Eritrea border war in 1998, Ethiopia continued to rely on Eritrean ports for its import and export needs.

In contemporary times, the Red Sea is a critical conduit for global trade, particularly in oil and natural gas. Despite lacking direct access, Ethiopia still views the Red Sea as a cornerstone in its geopolitical strategies. Its geographical proximity to Red Sea nations like Eritrea, Djibouti, and Yemen means its regional politics and security concerns are deeply interwoven with its interests. Moreover, Ethiopia’s diplomatic and economic ties with global powers such as the United States and China add further layers to its Red Sea considerations.

Economically, the port’s strategic location near the Red Sea renders it indispensable for Ethiopia’s commercial activities. At present, Ethiopia primarily relies on the ports of Djibouti, Berbera in Somaliland, and Sudan for its import and export transit. The port of Djibouti is particularly crucial, handling over 90% of Ethiopia’s international trade.

Claims fact-checked

1. Does UNCLOS guarantee Ethiopia’s quest to have a coastline?

No. UNCLOS does not contain any provisions that guarantee landlocked countries the right to own coastal areas.

However, UNCLOS grants landlocked countries the right to transit through the territory of other states to and from the sea. This means that landlocked countries have the right to pass through other states’ territories in order to reach the sea and transport their imports and exports without infringing on the sovereignty or interests of the transit states.

Put another way, landlocked countries have the right to use other states’ territories as a corridor to the sea, but they do not have the right to claim a coastline of their own.

Article 125 and Article 127 of UNCLOS grant landlocked states the right to transit their imports and exports through the territories of transit states by all means of transport without being subject to unfair payments.

Article 125 of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) clarifies that the right of landlocked states to transit imports and exports through coastal states must not in any way violate the sovereignty of the transit states. It also grants transit states the right to take all necessary measures to protect their sovereignty and interests.

2. Does international law guarantee maritime resource utilization?

Yes, to some extent. UNCLOS grants landlocked countries the right to access and exploit the ‘living resources’ of the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of their coastal neighbors.

On the other hand, the provision on the right of landlocked states to exploit the living resources of the EEZ of coastal states is subject to certain limitations. First, landlocked states are only entitled to exploit an “appropriate part” of the living resources. Second, they can only exploit the “surplus” of the resources. Third, they must agree with the neighboring coastal states on the terms of exploitation. The coastal state has the final say on the allowable catch of the living resources in its EEZ.

Additionally, the convention does not give landlocked states the right to exploit non-living resources such as minerals and oil within the EEZ of neighboring coastal countries.

3. Does international law guarantee the right to transit?

Yes. UNCLOS guarantees landlocked countries the right of transit through the territory of other states to and from the sea. The convention states that “land-locked States shall have the right of transit through the territory of transit States by all means of transport.” The right of transit allows landlocked states to transport their goods and people through the territories of coastal states to and from the sea. 

However, the right of transit is not absolute and is also subject to certain conditions, such as the need to respect the sovereignty and interests of the transit states.

4. Does international law and freedom of navigation?

Yes. UNCLOS guarantees all states, coastal and landlocked, the right to freedom of navigation on the high seas.

5. Do the right of transit, maritime resource utilization, and free passage mean the right to have a coastline?

No. HaqCheck observed social media posts that referred to provisions of the UNCLOS convention that grant states the right of import-export transit through transit states, maritime resource utilization, and the right of free passage on the high seas to support the claim that Ethiopia has a right to a coastline under international law.

However, this connection between these different topics is false. The right of transit, maritime resource utilization, and free passage are all distinct concepts from the right to a coastline. The right of transit allows landlocked states to transport their goods and people through the territories of other states to and from the sea. Maritime resource utilization will enable states to exploit the natural resources of the sea, such as fish and minerals. Free passage allows all states to navigate freely on the high seas.

The right of transit, maritime resource utilization, and free passage do not imply the right to a coastline.

The right to a coastline, on the other hand, is a territorial claim that gives a state sovereignty over a strip of land along the sea. UNCLOS does not guarantee any state the right to a coastline.