Author: Hagos Gebreamlak

The November 2023 Disinformation Analysis highlights several examples of misleading and false information circulating online in Ethiopia. These claims touch upon various aspects of Ethiopia’s political and economic landscape, including the country’s GDP growth, troop movements, and the death of a journalist.

Misleading Claim: Ethiopia’s GDP Doubled in Five Years

In November 2023, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (PhD) made the claim that Ethiopia’s GDP had doubled within the preceding five years. This statement, however, is inaccurate and misleading.

GDP, or Gross Domestic Product, represents the total monetary value of goods and services produced within a country during a specific year. Economic growth, therefore, refers to an increase in the production of goods and services, not merely an inflation in prices. Consequently, real GDP, rather than nominal GDP, serves as the most accurate measure of economic growth, as it accounts for changes in the general price level.

An examination of economic data reveals that Ethiopia’s real GDP only increased from 1.7 trillion Birr in 2018 to 2.2 trillion Birr in 2022, falling short of doubling. Furthermore, Ethiopia’s nominal GDP, when converted to US dollars, did not double either.

Therefore, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s claim that “Ethiopia’s GDP doubled in five years” is misleading and does not accurately reflect the country’s economic growth trajectory.

False Claim: Blinken Called for ENDF Withdrawal from Amhara

A social media claim circulated that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken had called for the withdrawal of the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) from the Amhara regional state. This claim is false.

On November 2, 2023, Secretary Blinken issued a statement commemorating the one-year anniversary of the Pretoria Agreement, which brought an end to the two-year war between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). In his statement, Blinken commended both sides for their commitment to the agreement and urged Ethiopia and Eritrea to refrain from provocative actions and respect the independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity of all countries in the region.

Secretary Blinken also expressed concern about the ongoing internal conflicts within Ethiopia and called for dialogue to resolve the conflicts in the Amhara and Oromia regional states. However, a thorough review of his statement commemorating the Pretoria Agreement reveals no explicit demand for the withdrawal of the ENDF from Amhara.

However, a review of Blinken’s statement commemorating the one-year anniversary of the Pretoria Agreement found no explicit demand for ENDF withdrawal. Therefore, the claim that Blinken called for the withdrawal of the ENDF from Amhara was found to be false.

False Claim: Eritrea Deploying Troops to Ethiopian Border

Social media posts claimed that Eritrea was deploying troops to the Ethiopian border. The posts use two images to support this claim.

During the conflict between the TPLF and the Ethiopian government, Eritrea played a significant role in supporting the central government. Notably, despite its involvement in the conflict, Eritrea did not participate in the negotiations or the subsequent signing of the peace agreement that concluded the war a year ago.

Recent statements from the Ethiopian government have emphasized the country’s aspiration to secure its own access to the sea, either through the Red Sea or the Indian Ocean. The Eritrean government has expressed opposition to this statement.

Amidst this context, the social media claim regarding Eritrean troop deployments emerged.

However, the images used to support this claim were old and did not depict recent troop movements.

Manipulated Video: Chief of Staff Birhanu Jula Said ENDF Exhausted by Fano Militants

A viral TikTok video purported to show Ethiopian Chief of General Staff Field Marshal Birhanu Jula admitting that the ENDF was overwhelmed by Fano militants. However, this claim is based on a manipulated video that misrepresents General Jula’s original statement.

The Ethiopian government’s decision to disarm and integrate special police forces in regional states into regional police, federal police, and the Ethiopian military sparked armed conflict between Fano militants and the ENDF in the Amhara region. Against this backdrop, the misleading TikTok video emerged, suggesting that Fano militants were gaining the upper hand in the Amhara region, with General Birhanu Jula’s supposed statement seemingly confirming this.

However, the TikTok video was deliberately altered to create this false impression. The original speech, published on YouTube two weeks prior, did not contain any statement about the ENDF being overwhelmed by Fano militants. The TikTok video was created by splicing together phrases from the original speech to fabricate a misleading narrative.

Therefore, the claim that General Birhanu Jula admitted the ENDF’s struggle against Fano militants is false and based on a manipulated video.

False Claim: President Sahle-Work Zewde Sought Asylum in US

Social media claims alleged that Ethiopian President Sahle-Work Zewde had traveled to the US and sought asylum there. These claims emerged against the backdrop of recent defections by several individuals, including journalists and an official from Ethiopia, who have sought political asylum in Europe and the United States.

Last month, Asemahegn Asres, a former Head of the Communication Bureau of the Amhara Region and vice chairman of the Parliament’s Standing Committee for Trade & Tourism Affairs, defected and sought political asylum abroad. Two weeks ago, reports indicated that Ethiopian Broadcasting Corporation journalist Mekdes Tilahun, who had recently traveled to the United States with President Sahle-Work Zewde, had disappeared from the airport.

In October, during a joint parliamentary session, President Sahle-Work Zewde expressed her disappointment at the lack of unity and reconciliation in Ethiopia, which has led to recurring conflicts and violence.

It was within this context that the claim regarding President Sahlewerk Zewde’s supposed defection and asylum-seeking in the US surfaced. However, recent news reports and confirmations from the UN Peacebuilding Commission indicate that President Zewde is currently in Ethiopia. On November 14, she received a delegation from the United Nations Peacebuilding Commission in Addis Ababa. This news was confirmed by the UN Peacebuilding Commission itself.

Therefore, the claim that President Sahle-Work Zewde sought asylum in the US is false and lacks any credible evidence.

False Claim: Journalist Asfaw Meshesha Died

A YouTube video claimed that Ethiopian journalist Asfaw Meshesha had died after being hospitalized. The video used misleading clips and images of mourners to support this fabricated claim. However, EBS, the broadcaster where Meshesha works, confirmed that he is alive and well.

Asfaw Meshesha is a well-known journalist who co-hosts the popular EBS TV show, Ehudn be EBS. Media reports indicated that he recently suffered a stroke and was admitted to a hospital in Addis Ababa. Following this incident, he traveled to the United States to seek advanced medical treatment.

It was against this backdrop that the false claim regarding Meshesha’s death emerged. The YouTube video employed manipulative editing techniques to create an impression of grief and mourning, which was entirely fabricated. EBS has since confirmed that Meshesha is alive and recovering from his medical condition.

Therefore, the claim that Asfaw Meshesha passed away is false. EBS confirmed that Meshesha is alive.

False Claim: Ethiopia’s Economy Bigger than Neighbors Combined

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed claimed that Ethiopia’s economy was bigger than those of its neighboring countries combined. However, an examination of economic data reveals that this claim is inaccurate.

Abiy Ahmed assumed power in April 2018, promising economic and political reforms to promote prosperity and democratization. The Ethiopian government, led by the Prosperity Party, maintains that these reforms have significantly improved the country’s economic performance.

Prime Minister Abiy has consistently emphasized Ethiopia’s positive economic trajectory and steady growth. Recently, he claimed that Ethiopia’s GDP had doubled within the past five years.

During an address to students, Prime Minister Abiy emphasized Ethiopia’s economic growth. He used a comparison of Ethiopia’s economy with its neighbors to support his assertion of the country’s economic progress.

Ethiopia’s economy, measured by nominal GDP, was the second largest in East Africa after Kenya five years ago. In 2018, Ethiopia’s nominal GDP stood at 84.4 billion USD, while Kenya’s nominal GDP was 91.2 billion USD.

In 2022, Ethiopia’s nominal GDP had increased to 126.8 billion USD, while Kenya’s nominal GDP stood at 119.5 billion USD. Consequently, Ethiopia’s economy, measured by nominal GDP, is the largest in East Africa.

However, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s claim that Ethiopia’s economy surpasses the combined GDP of its neighboring countries is inaccurate. Combining the nominal GDPs of Kenya and Sudan results in a figure significantly higher than that of Ethiopia.

Also, the combined nominal GDPs of Ethiopia’s five neighboring countries (excluding Eritrea and Somaliland) in 2022 amounted to 170 billion USD, exceeding Ethiopia’s 120.37 billion USD.

While Ethiopia has the largest nominal GDP in East Africa, a comparison of GDPs from its neighboring countries reveals that the combined GDP of Ethiopia’s neighbors exceeds Ethiopia’s.

Recommendations

HaqCheck urges social media users to adopt a critical approach when evaluating online information. Exercise caution and always verify claims from unknown or unverified sources before sharing them.

We encourage public institutions and other relevant entities to provide regular and timely updates to the public. Access to accurate information is crucial for minimizing the circulation of disinformation.

Social media content creators hold a significant responsibility in preventing the spread of misinformation. They must exercise caution and refrain from disseminating false or misleading information.

The government should uphold the public and media’s right to access information, ensuring that they have the necessary resources to verify and share accurate information.

Recent claims on social media, particularly on Twitter, allege that the Lalibela rock-hewn churches, a UNESCO World Heritage site in Ethiopia, were damaged by an air strike conducted by the Ethiopian army on November 11, 2023.

These claims emerged against the backdrop of the ongoing armed conflict in the Amhara region between Fano militants and the Ethiopian armed forces. Recent clashes have been reported in the historic town of Lalibela, near the UNESCO-registered churches.

The Lalibela rock-hewn churches, comprising 11 monolithic churches intricately carved from solid rock in the 13th century, stand as a pivotal pilgrimage destination for Ethiopian Orthodox Christians. These churches are esteemed as one of Ethiopia’s most significant cultural and religious landmarks.

Over the centuries, the Lalibela churches have suffered damage from erosion and weathering. Some churches are at risk due to erosion, primarily caused by weathering that damages the stone surfaces. Recent conservation and restoration projects have been implemented at the site.

There have been several restoration campaigns since the early 20th century. Notably, three successive campaigns were conducted in 1920, 1954, and 1966-68 under Sandro Angelini, an Italian architect and conservator known for his work in the field of historical monument restoration direction. The initial restorations in 1920 and 1954 were hastily done without scientific precautions, using excessive cement, which worsened the condition of the churches. Angelini had to correct these negative aspects in later restorations.

UNESCO, the US, and the European Union are among those supporting the restoration and maintenance efforts of the churches.

The European Union funded the construction of temporary shelters over five churches to protect them from weathering while conservation studies and activities were being carried out.

In 2008, UNESCO built temporary shelters over five churches to protect five Lalibela churches.

However, the shelters caused vibration and noise, and their weight strained the delicate structures. The shelters’ heavyweight, susceptibility to wind damage, and lack of scientific monitoring have led to fears that they may collapse and damage the churches.

Therefore, a new conservation study was initiated in 2019 to recommend an alternative protection for the long-term conservation of the churches.

In March 2019, French President Macron visited the Lalibela churches site with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and pledged assistance in preserving, restoring, and enhancing the area.

The renovation and restoration project, initiated by the French embassy in September 2019, stopped when the war between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) spilled over into the Amhara regional state.

The conflict between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has raised concerns about the fate of the Lalibela churches. While the TPLF took control of Lalibela in August 2021, the Ethiopian government regained control in December 2021.

In October 2022, France granted Ethiopia 5 million euros to support preserving and restoring the Lalibela churches. The grant was provided to conduct the preparatory phase of a program focused on preserving and restoring the churches.

The Amhara region of Ethiopia has been the site of an ongoing armed conflict between the Ethiopian government and Fano armed militants since the government began disbanding regional special police forces and integrating them into the regional regular police, federal police, and the Ethiopian military.

Recently, conflicts and confrontations between Fano and the Ethiopian army have been documented in various areas of the Amhara region, including the North Showa and Oromo special zones.

Furthermore, hostilities have broken out in the historic Ethiopian town of Lalibela, where government forces clashed with Fano militants, including a recent skirmish near the Lalibela rock-hewn churches involving the Fano militia and the Ethiopian army.

The armed conflict has raised concerns about the safety of Lalibela’s UNESCO World Heritage Site churches. Recent clashes have caused ground vibrations due to heavy weapons fire, adding to the uncertainty surrounding the safety and preservation of this cultural heritage site.

The town of Lalibela has experienced recurrent armed clashes between Fano militia groups and Ethiopian military troops. Fighting was reported on September 20, October 1, and October 8, with Fano militants capturing the town for hours on October 8 before being recaptured by Ethiopian Defense Forces on October 9.

Media reports indicate that heavy artillery weapons were employed during these recurrent clashes, leading to ground vibrations when weapons were discharged.

The Ethiopian Orthodox Tewahedo Church expressed concern about the safety of the monolith churches of Lalibela, with Abune Ermias, archbishop of North Wollo and Kemise Diocese, stating that the Lalibela churches are at high risk due to the fighting.

Responding to concerns, the Amhara Regional Culture and Tourism Bureau refuted allegations circulating on social media that the Lalibela churches were damaged during the fighting. This statement followed reports alleging damage to the churches during clashes between Ethiopian army troops and Fano militants in Lalibela.

Abebaw Ayalew, director-general of the Authority for Research and Conservation of Cultural Heritage, stated that a committee of seven individuals visited Lalibela to assess whether the churches sustained damages.

He noted vibrations in the area but confirmed no new cracks in the walls and structures of the churches. Abebaw stated that the office is investigating whether the vibrations caused previous cracks to widen and aggravate using three-dimensional (3D) tools.

Abebaw stated that the committee verified the churches were undamaged by weapons and fragments. Yet, they did discover a newly lodged bullet on the fence of the museum within Biete Medhane Alem, a rock-hewn church in Lalibela.

During a recent public meeting organized by the Ethiopian National Defense Force and the Amhara region in Lalibela town, attendees reported that Ethiopian army troops fired artillery and machine cannons from the vicinity of the churches, resulting in ground vibrations.

How do explosive weapons damage buildings and structures?

Explosive weapons, as explained in a report by the Geneva International Centre for Humanitarian Demining, a leading expert organization on explosive materials, 2017 can harm buildings and structures in two main ways: through primary and secondary effects.

Primary effects include blast overpressure, fragmentation, and heat, while secondary effects encompass debris or secondary fragmentation, firebrands, ground shock, and cratering. These secondary effects happen based on the surroundings where the explosive device explodes.

The degree of harm is contingent on several factors, such as the specific explosive weapon utilized, the distance from the detonation site to the structure, and the materials used in the building’s construction.

Blast overpressure, fragmentation, and heat

Blast overpressure, the most damaging primary effect, occurs when energy is rapidly released in an explosion.

A powerful blast wave, also known as a shockwave, swiftly travels through the air at supersonic speeds, exerting significant force on nearby structures. This force can damage buildings, applying pressure to roofs and walls, leading to shattered windows, warped walls, and structural collapse.

Fragments from the explosive device, especially those originating from the metal casing of the warhead, can travel tens to a few hundred meters away from the explosion site.

Fragmentation, another main impact, includes scattering high-speed projectiles from the casing objects. These fragments, varying from small pieces to larger chunks, have the potential to cause damage to buildings and structures. While not as dangerous to buildings as blast waves, these fragments can still pose a threat.

The heat released during detonation is confined to the nearby space, and its duration is brief. This heat results from the intense chemical reaction in the explosive detonation.

It has the potential to harm building materials, decreasing their flexibility. While the main thermal risk is usually less severe than blast and fragmentation dangers, it can still weaken building materials and structures, causing them to lose flexibility and contribute to gradual collapse. Moreover, heat can trigger flammable materials, resulting in additional fires.

Debris or secondary fragmentation and firebrands

Secondary effects occur when the explosion interacts with the surrounding environment.

Debris, including fragments of building materials, vegetation, or other dislodged objects, can inflict additional damage as they collide with structures.

While secondary fragments may not travel as far or as quickly as primary fragments, they can still penetrate walls, break windows, and cause structural harm.

Firebrands, which are composed of burning materials or fragments, have the potential to ignite nearby combustible materials.

This situation may occur when an explosive device detonates in close proximity to flammable objects such as wood, grass, vehicles, and fuel.

Embers risk buildings and structures by igniting nearby combustible materials and contributing to increased damage.

Ground shock and cratering

Ground shock occurs when the energy from the shockwave is transferred to the ground, shaking the foundations of buildings, compromising their structural integrity, and raising the risk of collapse.

Cratering, another secondary effect, occurs when a depression forms in the ground at the detonation site, potentially damaging nearby structures and destabilizing foundations.

While the recent claim of damage to the Lalibela rock-hewn churches remains unverified,  the ongoing conflict in the vicinity of these susceptible churches and the deployment of explosive weapons can result in additional damage, encompassing blast overpressure, fragmentation, heat, debris (secondary fragmentation), firebrands, ground shock, and cratering.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed claimed that Ethiopia’s economy was the second largest in East Africa five years ago and is now bigger than those of its neighboring countries combined.

Abiy assumed power in April 2018 following widespread protests, pledging economic and political reforms to foster prosperity and democratization. The Ethiopian government, led by the Prosperity Party, contends that the reforms have significantly improved the country.

The PM has repeatedly asserted that Ethiopia is on the right economic trajectory and the economy is growing. Recently, he claimed that Ethiopia’s GDP doubled within the last five years.

In a recent speech delivered to summer students at the Artificial Intelligence Institute, PM Abiy told the students that Ethiopia is growing. The comparison of Ethiopia’s economy with its neighbors was used to support his argument that Ethiopia and its economy are growing.

As PM Abiy claimed, Ethiopia’s economy, measured by nominal GDP, was the second largest in East Africa after that of Kenya five years ago. In 2018, Ethiopia’s nominal GDP, according to the National Bank of Ethiopia, was 84.4 billion USD, and Kenya’s nominal GDP, according to the Central Bank of Kenya, was 91.2 billion USD.

Five years later, in 2022, Ethiopia’s nominal GDP was 126.8 billion USD, and Kenya’s nominal GDP stood at 119.5 billion USD. Thus, as measured by nominal GDP, Ethiopia’s economy is the largest in East Africa.

However, the claim by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed that Ethiopia’s economy is even bigger than that of its neighbors combined is false.

Ethiopia is bordered by six internationally recognized countries: Somalia, Kenya, South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, and Djibouti, and one de facto sovereign state, Somaliland.

According to the World Bank, Sudan’s nominal GDP in 2022 was 51.7 billion USD. Accordingly, if we combine the nominal GDPs of Kenya and Sudan, they are much bigger than those of Ethiopia (171.2 billion versus 126.8 billion).

The latest data for the nominal GDPs of Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somaliland, and Somalia are not available online through their respective central banks or statistics agencies. Therefore, we must rely on data from other international financial institutions, such as the IMF, for our purposes.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported the nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for several countries in the Horn of Africa for the year 2022. These figures are as follows: Ethiopia’s GDP stood at USD 120.37 billion, Kenya’s at USD 113.7 billion, Sudan’s at USD 33.75 billion, Somalia’s at USD 10.42 billion, South Sudan’s at USD 8.54 billion, and Djibouti’s at USD 3.66 billion. It is important to note that the IMF’s data does not include information on Eritrea and Somaliland for the specified year.

Therefore, the combined nominal GDPs of Ethiopia’s five neighboring countries (excluding Eritrea and Somaliland) in 2022 was 170 billion USD, surpassing Ethiopia’s 120.37 billion USD.

In summary, despite Ethiopia having the largest nominal GDP in East Africa, Prime Minister Abiy’s claim that Ethiopia’s economy is larger than its neighbors combined is found to be false based on economic data from 2022.

President Sahlewerk Zewde stayed behind and seeking asylum in the US

A claim circulated on social media platforms, particularly Twitter and TikTok, that Ethiopian President Sahle-Work Zewde had left Ethiopia for the US and was seeking asylum there. The claim stated that she traveled to the US for a visit and stayed behind to seek asylum due to the “situation in Ethiopia and the harshness of the government.”

In recent times, several individuals including journalists and an official from Ethiopia have defected to Europe and the United States, seeking political asylum. These defections have occurred against a backdrop of political instability and conflict in the country.

Last month, Asemahegn Asres, a former Head of the Communication Bureau of the Amhara Region and vice chairman of the Parliament’s Standing Committee for Trade & Tourism Affairs, defected and sought political asylum abroad.

Two weeks ago, reports indicated that Ethiopian Broadcasting Corporation journalist Mekdes Tilahun, who had recently traveled to the United States with President Sahle-Work Zewde, had disappeared from the airport.

In October, during a joint parliamentary session, President Sahle-Work Zewde expressed her disappointment at the lack of unity and reconciliation in Ethiopia, which has led to recurring conflicts and violence.

It was in this context the claim that President Sahlewerk Zewde traveled to the US and stayed behind seeking asylum in the country emerged.

However, recent news reports indicate that President Zewde is currently in Ethiopia, and the claim that she has defected is false. On November 14, she received a delegation from the United Nations Peacebuilding Commission in Addis Ababa. This news was confirmed by the UN Peacebuilding Commission itself.

Journalist Asfaw Meshesha died

A claim on YouTube stated that journalist Asfaw Meshesha, who works for the Ethiopian Broadcasting Service (EBS), had died after being hospitalized. The YouTube video went viral, garnering thousands of views.

Asfaw Meshesha is a journalist known for being a co-host of the popular television show, Ehudn be EBS, on EBS TV.

Media reports stated that the journalist recently suffered a stroke and was admitted to the hospital in Addis Ababa. However, he traveled to the United States for better medical treatment.

The claim was made against this backdrop. The YouTube video used short clips and images that show mourners crying.

However, the claim that Asfaw Meshesha has died is false. The clips and images used in the YouTube video do not support the claim. Most of the clips and images were taken from scenes of the EBS show that Asfaw Meshesha co-hosts. Additionally, HaqCheck contacted EBS for information, and the media company confirmed that the claim was false.

Ethiopia’s Economy is bigger than neighbors combined

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed claimed that Ethiopia’s economy was the second largest in East Africa five years ago and is now bigger than those of its neighboring countries combined.

Abiy assumed power in April 2018 following widespread protests, pledging economic and political reforms to foster prosperity and democratization. The Ethiopian government, led by the Prosperity Party, contends that the reforms have significantly improved the country.

The PM has repeatedly asserted that Ethiopia is on the right economic trajectory, and the economy is growing. Recently, he claimed that Ethiopia’s GDP doubled within the last five years.

In a recent speech delivered to summer students at the HQs of INSA, PM Abiy told the students that Ethiopia is growing. The comparison of Ethiopia’s economy with its neighbors was used to support his argument that Ethiopia and its economy are growing.

As PM Abiy claimed, Ethiopia’s economy, measured by nominal GDP, was the second largest in East Africa after that of Kenya five years ago. In 2018, Ethiopia’s nominal GDP was 84.4 billion USD, and Kenya’s nominal GDP was 91.2 billion USD.

In 2022, Ethiopia’s nominal GDP was 126.8 billion USD, and Kenya’s nominal GDP stood at 119.5 billion USD. Thus, Ethiopia’s economy, measured by nominal GDP, is the largest in East Africa.

However, the claim by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed that Ethiopia’s economy is even bigger than that of its neighbors combined is false.

Ethiopia is bordered by six internationally recognized countries: Somalia, Kenya, South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, and Djibouti, and one de facto sovereign state: Somaliland.

According to the World Bank, Sudan’s nominal GDP in 2022 was 51.7 billion USD. Accordingly, if we combine the nominal GDPs of Kenya and Sudan, it is much bigger than that of Ethiopia (171.2 billion versus 126.8 billion).

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the nominal GDPs of Ethiopia, Kenya, Sudan, Somalia, South Sudan, and Djibouti in 2022 respectively were 120.37 billion, 113.7 billion, 33.75 billion, 10.42 billion, 8.54 billion, and 3.66 billion USD. The IMF doesn’t have data on Eritrea and Somaliland.

Therefore, the combined nominal GDPs of Ethiopia’s five neighboring countries (excluding Eritrea and Somaliland) in 2022 was 170 billion USD, surpassing Ethiopia’s 120.37 billion USD.

In summary, despite Ethiopia having the largest nominal GDP in East Africa, Prime Minister Abiy’s claim that Ethiopia’s economy is larger than its neighbors combined is found to be false based on economic data from 2022.

Recommendations

HaqCheck urges government officials to take accountability and abstain from disseminating inaccurate or misleading statements.

HaqCheck encourages social media users to employ critical thinking skills, emphasizing the importance of verifying claims from unfamiliar or unverified sources before dissemination.

Content creators on social media are advised to act responsibly and abstain from spreading information that is false or misleading.

We call upon public institutions and relevant organizations to provide consistent and timely updates to the public and the media.

Recognizing the crucial role of information access in combating misinformation, the government is urged to safeguard the public and media’s right to access information, contributing to the reduction of the widespread dissemination of false information.

Disinformation in Ethiopia in October 2023 was driven by the conflict between Fano militias and Ethiopian government forces. Disinformation was spread through a variety of tactics, including altered and old videos, recycled claims, and false images.

The armed conflict involving Fano militias and Ethiopian government forces significantly contributed to the dissemination of disinformation last month.

Below are some of the disinformation themes tracked across the Ethiopian social media landscape during October.

Violence against civilians by ENDF soldiers

Social media in Ethiopia has been circulating false claims about violence by the Ethiopian government against civilians in the Amhara region.

A user on An X (formerly known as Twitter) shared a video claiming that it showed Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) soldiers recently beating up civilians in the Amhara region.

HaqCheck investigated the claim and found that the video was old and had been posted on Twitter on May 13, 2021, with a description that it showed Ethiopian army soldiers beating up and terrorizing Tigrayan civilians during the armed conflict between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).

Afar militants joined Fano in opposition to the Ethiopian government

False information was being circulated on the Ethiopian social media landscape claiming that Afar ethnic militants were teaming up with Fano militants in opposition to the Ethiopian government.

One example of this disinformation campaign was a Facebook post that shared an image claiming that Afar militants were fighting the Ethiopian military supporting Fano militants.

However, the post used an old image from May 2021 to support their claim that the Afar and Fano militias were fighting together. The original description of the image said that it showed armed conflict between Afar and Somali militants.

Government looted and smuggled artifacts

Another theme of disinformation in October revolved around a claim that the Ethiopian government looted and smuggled precious artifacts.

A Telegram channel with over 334,000 members shared two images on October 4, 2023, claiming that the Ethiopian government had stolen artifacts, replicas of the Tablets of Stone, ancient gold coins, and crowns of kings from the Amhara and Tigray regions and smuggled them to the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

However, the images were old and had been previously published on websites. One image, showing gold bars, was published on a website called PicLoc and is for sale. The second image, showing household items, was published on a Turkish website and is used to describe a house-to-house transportation service company.

The Ethiopian government bombed residential areas

One of the themes of disinformation in October was that the Ethiopian government was indiscriminately bombing the Amhara region, including civilian and densely populated residential areas.

For example, a TikTok video shared a video of burning buildings and claimed it showed the city of Gondar being bombed by the Ethiopian government.

However, the video was previously published on social media in August 2023 by Way To Go Heliservices, a company in New Zealand that provides helicopter services. The video shows a helicopter burning weeds.

Recommendations

HaqCheck advises social media users to exercise critical thinking when evaluating information encountered online and to verify claims from unknown or unverified sources before sharing them.

Social media content creators should be responsible and avoid disseminating false or misleading information.

We urge public institutions and other relevant entities to provide regular and timely updates.

Access to information is essential to reduce the widespread circulation of disinformation. The government should ensure the public and media’s right to access information.

Blinken called for the withdrawal of the ENDF from the Amhara region

Last week, a claim (link, link) circulated on social media that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken called for the withdrawal of the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) from the Amhara regional state.

On November 2, Blinken issued a statement commemorating the one-year anniversary of the Pretoria Agreement, which ended the two-year war between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). In the statement, Blinken commended both sides for their commitments to the agreement and called on Ethiopia and Eritrea to refrain from provocation and respect the independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity of all countries in the region.

Blinken also expressed concern about the internal conflicts in Ethiopia and called for dialogue to resolve the conflicts in the Amhara and Oromia regional states.

However, contrary to the claim on social media, Antony Blinken’s statement did not include a specific call for the withdrawal of the Ethiopian military from the Amhara region. While he addressed the internal conflicts in Ethiopia, he did not make any explicit demand for the ENDF to withdraw from the Amhara regional state.

Therefore, the claim that Blinken called for the withdrawal of the ENDF from Amhara is false.

Eritrea is deploying troops to Ethiopian border

HaqCheck has observed a claim on social media that Eritrea is deploying its troops to the Ethiopian border. The posts use two images to support this claim, but both images are old and do not show Eritrean troops recently deployed near the Ethiopian border.

During the conflict between the TPLF and the Ethiopian government, Eritrea played a significant role in supporting the central government. It’s worth noting that Eritrea, despite its involvement in the conflict, did not take part in the negotiations or the subsequent signing of the peace agreement that concluded the war a year ago.

Recent statements from the Ethiopian government emphasized the country’s aspiration to secure its own access to the sea, either through the Red Sea or the Indian Ocean. The Eritrean government has opposed this statement.

In this context, the social media claim that Eritrea is deploying its troops to the Ethiopian border emerged. 

However, the images used in the post were old and did not show Eritrean troops recently deployed near the Ethiopian border.

Chief of Staff Birhanu Jula said ENDF is exhausted by Fano militants

HaqCheck came across a viral TikTok video in which Ethiopian Chief of General Staff Field Marshal Birhanu Jula is heard saying that the Ethiopian military is exhausted and defeated by Fano militants.

The Ethiopian government’s decision to disarm special police forces in regional states and integrate them into regional police, federal police, and the Ethiopian military led to opposition in the Amhara region. This decision sparked armed conflict between Fano militants and the Ethiopian military in the region. Reports indicate that clashes between Fano militants and Ethiopian military forces are ongoing in the Amhara region.

It is against this backdrop that the claim on TikTok emerged, suggesting that Fano militants were prevailing over the Ethiopian army in the Amhara region, with General Birhanu Jula allegedly confirming this.

However, the TikTok clip featuring General Birhanu Jula was manipulated and does not support this claim. It was taken from an original video published on YouTube. The original speech, made by General Birhanu Jula two weeks prior, did not contain a statement about ENDF being overwhelmed by Fano militants. The short TikTok video was created by splicing together phrases from the original video to give the false impression that General Birhanu Jula made such a statement.

Recommendations

It’s important for social media users to approach posts with caution, especially if they come from unfamiliar or unconfirmed sources. They should fact-check claims before reacting.

Social media content creators should act responsibly and refrain from sharing information that is untrue or could mislead others.

Public institutions and other concerned organizations should regularly provide timely and accurate information.

The government should ensure that both the public and the media have the right to access information. Access to information is crucial for combating disinformation.